Timing is a concern for job seekers and employers in election year; when to jump ship?

Hundreds of Capitol Hill staffers already know they’ll be out of a job next year because their bosses are retiring or lost their primaries. Others may see the writing on the political wall. While there are many high-level staffers looking for lobbying or other top jobs, recruiters and insiders say there isn’t much hiring going on—yet.

“"People aren'’t hiring in general right now unless they really have to,”" said Ivan Adler, principal with search firm The McCormick Group. “"The bulk of people are waiting for the election.”"

CEO Update hiring statistics show election-year recruiting spikes as the election nears— sometime in August— and accelerates once the outcome becomes more predictable. In 2010, when Republicans were poised to take over the House, hiring GR hiring skyrocketed 130 percent in the three months before election day compared to the previous non-election year.

Adler said GR hiring should increase after Nov. 6, too: “Whenever there’s change, that’s good for the job market. It’s especially good for the party that ends up in power.”

The biennial congressional job churn has a twist this year: three dozen members of Congress will retire at the end of the session, the highest number since 1996, according to Roll Call’s casualty lists. Another nine incumbents have lost primary races so far. It’s likely that 65 or more freshmen will take office in 2013, compared with 94 newbies in January 2011. If Mitt Romney wins the presidency, expect turnover in several thousand executive branch jobs as well.

CEO Update publishes more GR searches around election time. In 2010, when the House was poised for a Republican takeover, 273 GR jobs were posted from Aug. 1 to Nov. 1, compared with 119 jobs for the same period in 2009 and 193 in 2011.

For staffers, deciding when to leave—or even when to start looking for another job—is a very individual choice. Factors to consider include current responsibilities, loyalty to the member of Congress, and whether your value might be enhanced or reduced by the election outcome.

"“If you’re playing a critical administrative role for the member, such as a scheduler or a chief of staff … you’re probably not going to seriously start looking until the fall,”" said Brad Fitch, CEO of the Congressional Management Foundation, a nonprofit that provides training and consulting for Hill offices. "For junior staffers, who may have a harder time finding a new job: “If you can find something good, take it."”

Adler advised starting your job hunt sooner rather than later: “"At least be talking about it.… You don’t want to be caught with the rest of the salmon swimming upstream.”"

Doug Thompson, vice president of government affairs at the Retail Industry Leaders Association, suggested taking a new job before the election. Thompson started with RILA the day before the 2010 vote, which swept 54 House members and two senators out of office. He had been on the Hill for three decades, and was legislative director for retiring Rep. John Tanner (D-Tenn.).

"“Had I waited until after the election, I would have been competing with hundreds more,"” Thompson said, including much younger, equally eager and possibly cheaper workers.

But with the looming “fiscal cliff” lame duck session, many top aides for departing lawmakers may stay until the end. Nora Baumeister Matus, chief of staff for retiring Democrat Rep. Lynn Woolsey of California, said she will stay through the lame duck.

“"There are a lot of very critical issues that are going to be decided at that time,"” Matus said. “"I definitely want to be a part of that.”"

Matus said she plans to start exploring her options during the August recess, including associations. She’s been a chief of staff for 20 years, 10 each for Woolsey and former Rep. Karen Thurman (D-Fla.). Matus said two of Woolsey’s Washington staffers have moved to the Democratic whip’s office, and others are interviewing, but there'’s been no mass exodus yet. Matus said Woolsey, a former human resources executive, has taken an active role in helping her staff move on, reviewing resumes and even holding mock job interviews.

A chief of staff for a retiring Republican confirmed that many people are looking for jobs, including among his staff, but that few are finding new positions.

Hire now or later?
Some employers may also be debating whether to snatch up top candidates now, or wait until the elections to see if there’s a shift in power or who else might become available. Hot commodities include staffers with backgrounds in taxes and health. The conventional wisdom, for now, is that the House will stay in Republican control, but the Senate and White House are too close to call.

“A lot of association and private-sector clients are wondering, should we wait until November?” said Julian Ha, government affairs practice leader at search firm Heidrick & Struggles. Some GR offices may want to adjust the political balance of their lobbying teams following the elections, though for many associations subject matter expertise trumps political affiliation.

Some prominent recent Hill-to-association hires include Laena Fallon, communications director for House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.); she moves to Financial Services Forum in August as vice president for communications.

Tom O’Donnell, chief of staff for Rep. Steve Rothman (D-N.J.), joined the National Association of Chain Drug Stores in June as vice president for federal government affairs. O’Donnell said Rothman was very supportive of his decision to leave the Hill; he landed the job before Rothman lost his primary on June 5.

The National Propane Gas Association has been knee-deep for weeks in interviewing for a director of legislative affairs, said Phil Squair, senior vice president of public and governmental affairs. Applicants from the Hill include people whose bosses are retiring, as well as people whose bosses are likely to serve another term. "NPGA isn’'t waiting for the election because the group’s issues are bipartisan and the need is now," Squair said.
"Our “mission is advocacy and to have an individual position vacant is not a good thing,” he said. “We have active legislative goals in this Congress that we need to pursue.”"