Nursing homes and assisted care facilities are expected to lose $94 billion over the next two years as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, with more 1,600 nursing homes at risk of closing by the end of 2021, according to a new analysis by an industry trade group.

The American Health Care Association and AHCA's arm for assisted living, the National Center for Assisted Living, noted the pandemic has taken a particularly heavy toll on its industry, which cares for people most at-risk from COVID-19. Nursing homes and assisted care facilities spent roughly $30 billion on personal protective equipment and additional staffing last year alone. At the same time, occupancy rates have dropped from 71% to 67%.

"We need census to recover at a rate of about 1% a month, and while that doesn't sound like a lot, it's not as easy as it might seem. … If the census doesn't recover at all, or recover slower than that, the sector has a real problem," AHCA/NCAL CEO Mark Parkinson told the news site McKnight's Senior Living.

The nursing home industry is only one of several industries seeking additional economic aid as Congress negotiates another stimulus package. AHCA/NCAL is specifically asking for $20 billion in funding, either through an enhanced Federal Medicaid Assistance Percentage for long-term services and support, or through a dedicated portion to the Provider Relief Fund.

"This financial support will bring much-needed relief and enable providers to continue protecting residents and staff," the association said in a statement.

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